Weather or Not

[deguspice]

The National Weather Service has an interesting way of saying "I can't tell what will happen"

THE ADVISORY COVER INTERIOR ESSEX COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT.

RAIN MAY END FOR A TIME TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY AS A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. SLEET MAY BE ADDED TO THE MIX AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND IN LATER FORECASTS.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT ICING WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND REQUIRE AN ICE STORM WARNING.

FOR NOW... THIS ADVISORY IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION TO WHAT IS A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS.

Comments

[dpolicar]

P and I have a running gag where one of us will give some complicated non-answer to a question and the other will reply "yeah, I don't know either."

Weather

[(Anonymous)]

Bear in mind when they forecast the weather they are looking at
five extremely complex mathematical models. Each model has
thousands of variables in predicting the future weather.

If several variables are off it can throw the entire forecast off.

Whenever I hear complaints like this about forecasting I like
to ask the complainer to point to his website where
he forecasts the weather correctly 100% of the time/365
days a year/24 hours a day.

[badgerthorazine.livejournal.com]

oh, DEAR! Well, it's going to be cold and wet. Maybe. A lot. Of something. Will Happen.

[galestorm.livejournal.com]

Weather: there will be some.

[madbodger.livejournal.com]

A long time ago, I read a science fiction short story (I really wish I knew the title or author today!)
about a science project involving a carrot that was put onto a satellite in earth orbit. Via some shenanigans, the carrot experiment became sentient and did various things. But the one I remember was that it would radio commentary back to earth, including greeting all weather "forecasting" with insane giggling. I share this attitude.

[c1.livejournal.com]

I'm on the SKYWARN list, and see quite a lot of this. On the other hand, it's comforting to see there's not as much hubris as humility at the NWS-- I'd rather read that they really don't know than be duped into something that could get hairy.
Given that a lot of aviators and sailors rely on this, it's probably a Good Thing overall.

[cogitationitis.livejournal.com]

And amazingly, they were right--we are getting rain, sleet, and ice, sometimes all at once.

There once was a TV series I liked called "The Pretender." The last episode took place on some Scottish isle, where one character expressed amazement that it could both rain and snow at once. Obviously, she'd never been to New England.